The California voter roll litigation is a useful illustration of “election integrity” claims that would exclude far more eligible votes than ineligible ones.
The issue and the solution are found in "economics," because you rephrase it to "Who pays for the errors?" The DOJ and Trump personally do not pay for any errors. If the right to vote is valuable, then removing it unlawfully should carry a penalty. If Trump had to pay a fine for each name his government put on a list of a person who had to reregister or who was otherwise proven as a citizen, those lists would be much shorter if they went out at all.
PS: the "I was told..." shows the age. That SNL clip is older than Trump.
(What Republican Elected and Appointed Class thinks of its voters)
DoJ argument on confusion:
“Your honor, we trick our Republican voters every time, Judge, and believe us, they get confused so easily! This name issue is going to be very difficult for them. Don’t apply the reasonable man standard! Apply the reasonable Republican standard! It’s only fair, Your Honor.”
Brought to you by the same party that brought you “ Dirty Tricks “ and “The Plumbers”
Interestingly, in 2024, the Republican Party of Alaska sued to keep a NY State inmate with no connection to Alaska on the ballot against Mary P. In her House race. They won, because like the other Dan Sullivan, the inmate had complied with all filing requirements. Funny, that Trump and Todd Blanche didn’t bring that up!
While I don’t have the exact quote, I read that Judge Bumatay’s second dissent claimed the majority failed to take the government’s argument at “ face value”. Given DOJ’s performance over the past year and a half, that’s an extraordinary assertion.
Here in MD the early voting numbers are interesting. We got close to twice as many early Dem voters as in 2024. Two and a half times as many Hispanic early voters. (Whom I suspect not only wanted to make sure their votes got tabulated, but are understandably leery of what may happen at the polls tomorrow.)
Our county has a high proportion of Hispanics and we've been notified to expect federal poll watchers. They'll be drawing from multiple agencies, not just DOJ, and not all will be attorneys. As an election judge it'll be interesting to see how that goes down.
As I understand it, the current Republican argument is that even though the perfect is the enemy of the good, the effort to keep “illegals” and ineligibles is worth the effort. If mistakes get made along the way, they will clean them up but that is more philosophically palatable than living with known fraud no matter how small. After all, in close races, such fraud could make the difference citing one Congressional districts had once been lost by six votes. For these, statistical analysis does not substitute for full investigation of actual ballots.
Nuts! I know but they think they are taking the high ground!
Lexis Nexis is flawed. My insurance agent relied on it to claim I has a person in my household and was putting that person on my insurance (of course raising my premium). My verbal denial was not adequate; I had to sign a form. This person does not exist at my location. The name appeared on TWO pieces of junk mail with my address and the person’s name. Had to return all the mail to the PO to get it to stop.
For years the EPA has tracked known very harmful chemicals in the ground and groundwater. Think dioxin. Think heavy metals. Cadmium. Safe levels of concentration have been set for these in parts per billion. Some of these have been set very low based on evidence. Others have been set very low for lack of there being any evidence that there is such a thing as a safe level, they being considered so dangerous. One might say, on the basis of the precautionary principle, given the fact that science has yet to discover a safe level. Epidemiologist and other informed persons, just dont know. This includes bureaucrats at the EPA charged with a duty to protect the public.
In some cases, I was informed by my father, an organic chemist who researched this matter in connection with a suoerfund site, the safe limits for Cadmium and other heavy metals set by the EPA for evaluation purposes were so low that they were less than the accuracy of the methods used to measure them. Ie, within the statistical error rate associated with instruments, methods and conditional probabilities associated with related causal chains.
In such a case, that of the North Sea landfill in South Hampton, New York, so he said, the EPA New York office in Albany directed that when no evidence of any such substance was found in groundwater, ie, instrument readings measured zero, that testers enter the degree of accuracy associated their equipment as the reported finding. Just to be safe.
This resulted in the North Sea landfill being scored as a superfund site despite lack of evidence of toxic chemicals in the groundwater. It is harder to delist a superfund site than it is to get a rich man through the eye of a needle. It was done in this instance. Many tax dollars were at stake.
This was excusable. What Trump and his conspirators are doing is similar but perverse. They are turning the precautionary principle inside out for their purposes. They hurl bald accusations. They send out bogus lists of suspect voters. They demand they election officials suspend their operations, investigate voter lists, and certify to the DOJ something that is impossible to determine: that their voter lists are 100% free of error. Their own lists are proven to be grossly in error. But none of this matters to them. They still threaten election officials nationwide with criminal prosecution for allowing aliens to vote. With there being no evidence of that happening.
Meeting their demands are impossible. They would result in the suspension of elections. They dont really expect that. The point is the messaging to the public about illegal aliens in the country. The constant messaging. And the constant devaluation of democratic processes. Only those with very deep pockets have the motive, means and opportunity to support this campaign to destroy the validity of elections.
Thanks for the information on the League of Women Voters’ “VOTE411” website.
I hope turn out for this election is massive. Our politicians need to know that we are paying attention, whether we vote Democratic or Republican.
'Base rate fallacy'... learn something new every day. Tell POTUS. Thank you.
The issue and the solution are found in "economics," because you rephrase it to "Who pays for the errors?" The DOJ and Trump personally do not pay for any errors. If the right to vote is valuable, then removing it unlawfully should carry a penalty. If Trump had to pay a fine for each name his government put on a list of a person who had to reregister or who was otherwise proven as a citizen, those lists would be much shorter if they went out at all.
PS: the "I was told..." shows the age. That SNL clip is older than Trump.
Re: Alaska Name on Ballot Issue:
(What Republican Elected and Appointed Class thinks of its voters)
DoJ argument on confusion:
“Your honor, we trick our Republican voters every time, Judge, and believe us, they get confused so easily! This name issue is going to be very difficult for them. Don’t apply the reasonable man standard! Apply the reasonable Republican standard! It’s only fair, Your Honor.”
Brought to you by the same party that brought you “ Dirty Tricks “ and “The Plumbers”
Interestingly, in 2024, the Republican Party of Alaska sued to keep a NY State inmate with no connection to Alaska on the ballot against Mary P. In her House race. They won, because like the other Dan Sullivan, the inmate had complied with all filing requirements. Funny, that Trump and Todd Blanche didn’t bring that up!
While I don’t have the exact quote, I read that Judge Bumatay’s second dissent claimed the majority failed to take the government’s argument at “ face value”. Given DOJ’s performance over the past year and a half, that’s an extraordinary assertion.
Here in MD the early voting numbers are interesting. We got close to twice as many early Dem voters as in 2024. Two and a half times as many Hispanic early voters. (Whom I suspect not only wanted to make sure their votes got tabulated, but are understandably leery of what may happen at the polls tomorrow.)
Our county has a high proportion of Hispanics and we've been notified to expect federal poll watchers. They'll be drawing from multiple agencies, not just DOJ, and not all will be attorneys. As an election judge it'll be interesting to see how that goes down.
As I understand it, the current Republican argument is that even though the perfect is the enemy of the good, the effort to keep “illegals” and ineligibles is worth the effort. If mistakes get made along the way, they will clean them up but that is more philosophically palatable than living with known fraud no matter how small. After all, in close races, such fraud could make the difference citing one Congressional districts had once been lost by six votes. For these, statistical analysis does not substitute for full investigation of actual ballots.
Nuts! I know but they think they are taking the high ground!
Tough to change this thinking!
Thanks for your thoughts on the subject!
Lexis Nexis is flawed. My insurance agent relied on it to claim I has a person in my household and was putting that person on my insurance (of course raising my premium). My verbal denial was not adequate; I had to sign a form. This person does not exist at my location. The name appeared on TWO pieces of junk mail with my address and the person’s name. Had to return all the mail to the PO to get it to stop.
For years the EPA has tracked known very harmful chemicals in the ground and groundwater. Think dioxin. Think heavy metals. Cadmium. Safe levels of concentration have been set for these in parts per billion. Some of these have been set very low based on evidence. Others have been set very low for lack of there being any evidence that there is such a thing as a safe level, they being considered so dangerous. One might say, on the basis of the precautionary principle, given the fact that science has yet to discover a safe level. Epidemiologist and other informed persons, just dont know. This includes bureaucrats at the EPA charged with a duty to protect the public.
In some cases, I was informed by my father, an organic chemist who researched this matter in connection with a suoerfund site, the safe limits for Cadmium and other heavy metals set by the EPA for evaluation purposes were so low that they were less than the accuracy of the methods used to measure them. Ie, within the statistical error rate associated with instruments, methods and conditional probabilities associated with related causal chains.
In such a case, that of the North Sea landfill in South Hampton, New York, so he said, the EPA New York office in Albany directed that when no evidence of any such substance was found in groundwater, ie, instrument readings measured zero, that testers enter the degree of accuracy associated their equipment as the reported finding. Just to be safe.
This resulted in the North Sea landfill being scored as a superfund site despite lack of evidence of toxic chemicals in the groundwater. It is harder to delist a superfund site than it is to get a rich man through the eye of a needle. It was done in this instance. Many tax dollars were at stake.
This was excusable. What Trump and his conspirators are doing is similar but perverse. They are turning the precautionary principle inside out for their purposes. They hurl bald accusations. They send out bogus lists of suspect voters. They demand they election officials suspend their operations, investigate voter lists, and certify to the DOJ something that is impossible to determine: that their voter lists are 100% free of error. Their own lists are proven to be grossly in error. But none of this matters to them. They still threaten election officials nationwide with criminal prosecution for allowing aliens to vote. With there being no evidence of that happening.
Meeting their demands are impossible. They would result in the suspension of elections. They dont really expect that. The point is the messaging to the public about illegal aliens in the country. The constant messaging. And the constant devaluation of democratic processes. Only those with very deep pockets have the motive, means and opportunity to support this campaign to destroy the validity of elections.
Didn't Blackstone say, better a thousand eligible voters be disenfranchised, than that one dirty illegal be allowed to vote?